Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be a spoiler in Michigan? For who?
Washington Post columnist Philip Bump analyzes polling data to see if Kennedy will help or hurt re-election chances for Biden.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to supporters during a campaign event, Sunday, April 21, 2024, in Royal Oak, Mich.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was in metro Detroit over the weekend to hold a hybrid campaign rally and comedy show in Royal Oak.
A few hundred people showed up to hear raunchy jokes about Kennedy’s opponents — Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Last week, Kennedy qualified for the ballot in Michigan — not as an independent, but as the nominee of the Natural Law Party.
In 2020, the Natural Law Party nominee garnered just under 3,000 votes. That number figures to go up significantly this time around with a more recognizable name.
But is it enough to affect the outcome between Trump and Biden in Michigan?
Philip Bump is a columnist for the Washington Post and the author of ‘The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America.’
Bump’s analysis shows that Kennedy’s appearance on the ballot moves the needle. However…
“The challenge is we don’t know which direction it moves the needle more,” Bump said.
So it’s not set up like the classic spoiler situation in 2000 when Ralph Nader syphoned votes from Al Gore.
“That is not the case with RFK. Yes, he’s got the Kennedy name, but his positions are very MAGA aligned,” Bump says. “Their positions are frequently ones that line up with what Donald Trump himself has been arguing.”
Which is odd, because one of the chief donors to Donald Trump also donated $20 million dollars to Kennedy’s Super Pac.
Bump says backing a potential spoiler is not an exact science.
“Even if you have polling that you think shows this overwhelmingly aids Trump, a lot of other polling suggests that it may not,” Bump said. “And so you may be spending a lot of money and ended up shooting the candidate you prefer right in the foot.”
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