Detroit could be without a Black member of Congress — again

The 2022 election left Detroit without Black representation in Congress for the first time in decades. After the results of last week’s Michigan primary, that’s unlikely to change in 2024.

Incumbent Shri Thanedar defeats two challengers

When Shri Thanedar won the Democratic primary in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District in 2022, he defeated eight Black challengers. Together, those candidates received more than 70% of the vote. But no single one earned more votes than Thanedar, who was born in India. His 28% was enough to earn the nomination and ensure victory in November in one of America’s safest Democratic districts.

This year, Thanedar faced just two Black challengers: Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters and attorney Shakira Lynn Hawkins. Waters ran on the promise of restoring Black representation in Washington, D.C. and accused Thanedar of ignoring constituents.

“I have never ever seen so many people who were unhappy with representation,” Waters has said. “Nobody, not one person said to me, not then or now, that they were satisfied with the representation they were receiving.”

Invalid signatures knocked one candidate off the ballot

A third Black candidate, former state Senator Adam Hollier, filed petitions to run against Thanedar. Hollier ran in 2022 and had the backing of many prominent Democrats and faith leaders. But Thanedar challenged Hollier’s nominating petitions, citing possible forgeries. The Wayne County Clerk examined the petitions and determined Hollier did not submit enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. 

Duggan endorsed Mary Waters over Thanedar

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan announced his endorsement of Mary Waters at the Mackinac Policy Conference in May. But even with his support, she couldn’t raise enough money to overcome the wealthy Thanedar, who relied mostly on his own fortune.

This time he won with about 54% of the vote. Thanedar says when he talks to constituents, they say their main concern is neither race nor ethnicity, but how he can help them.

“It’s not about who I am, my race, my skin color,” Thanedar said. “For them, it’s someone that will help them. Whether to close the economic gap, whether to create those skill sets so they can get a good paying job, whether someone can lower health care costs.”

Thanedar’s opponent in November 2024 is a Black Republican, Martell Bivings. It’s a rematch of 2022, when Thanedar beat Bivings by an almost 3-1 margin. Bivings spoke to WDET’s All Things Considered host Russ McNamara about why he’s running for Congress again.

Detroit’s other member of Congress, Palestinian American Rashida Tlaib, won the general election in 2022 and had no primary opponent this year.

James-Marlinga rematch set for November

Michigan’s only Black representative, Republican John James, faces a rematch in November with former Macomb County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga, who won the Democratic primary in the 10th Congressional District. James beat Marlinga by less than one percent two years ago, but Marlinga says he’s counting on Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, to help him flip the seat.

“We have a ticket that’s just designed perfectly for the voters of this county,” Marlinga said. “Macomb County is known as the home to Reagan Democrats from years ago. We tend to vote Democratic but we are suspicious of extremes at either end, right or left.”

That may be true in local races, but in national elections, Macomb County is former President Donald Trump’s territory. The three-time Republican nominee won 53 percent of the vote in the county in 2016 and 2020. Macomb County voters also favored now-Rep. John James in his failed attempt to defeat Gary Peters for his U.S. Senate seat in 2020.

GOP eyes return to Senate

Michigan will have an open Senate seat this year with Democrat Debbie Stabenow’s retirement, and the GOP is counting on former Congressman Mike Rogers to flip it in November. It’s been 30 years since Michigan elected a Republican to the Senate. But Rogers, who easily won the 2024 primary election, says his economic message resonates with factory workers in Macomb County and the rest of the state.

“I spent a lot of time with folks in the factory who are saying, ‘this thing scares me.’ They should be scared,” Rogers said. “That’s why we’re going to win. So this is a sprint. We know we’re in it. It’s going to be tight. There’s going to be eight gazillion dollars flowing into this state.”

Rogers and his Democratic opponent, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, have already raised millions of dollars in what pundits say will be one of the closest and most expensive Senate races in the country. Slotkin, who has proven she can beat Republicans in close races, says voters want someone who can work both sides of the aisle.

“I understand what it’s like to be cynical about politics and not expect a lot from your elected officials,” Slotkin said. “I understand the bar is very low for many elected officials. My plan is to leap over that very, very low bar.”

It’s a toss-up right now

The latest polling gives Slotkin a slight edge in a head-to-head match with Rogers. In a New York Times/Siena College survey of 619 likely Michigan voters taken between Aug. 5-8, 46% said they would vote for Slotkin, 43% chose Rogers and 11% either said they didn’t know or refused to answer. The poll’s 4.8% margin of error makes the race a toss-up.

In the end, the only poll that matters is who wins the Nov. 5 general election.